This act of terror in Moscow has handed to Western intelligence, an enormous treasure trove of intelligence analytics.

Despite the ISIS-K claim to responsibility and the release to the internet of the video by them, Vladimir Putin insists this attack was ordered by the sovereign government of Ukraine. If ISIS-K had not been responsible, they would not have been able to release the video and claim responsibility. Yet the President of Russia dares to lie to his own people and the world while brutally using this heinous attack to justify further hypersonic missile attacks on Ukraine in the past 48 hours. This abrogation of international responsibility is criminal.

However, there are some interesting positives in this heinous story. Firstly, it suggests that Putin and his intelligence apparatus is unable to penetrate central Asian mercenary terrorist politics and groups. Moscow is blind, Putin is blind. Had they had access to their own independent intelligence, they would have understood the threat and been able to mitigate it. They did not understand the threat because they could not verify it, and because they don’t have the access or the relationships any longer.

This speaks volumes and is good news for Ukraine, Europe, NATO and Central Asia. Russia is quite blind to what is unfolding in their back yard. It also suggests that Putin thought he could sacrifice the men of Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kalmykia, and as far as Siberian Krasnoyarsk Krai on the fields of Ukraine without repercussion. Then there is the Russian failure in Syria which ignited the ISIS retribution that has only just begun.
Of strategic importance is that Putin appears to have lost the loyalty and confidence of the Central Asian republics, who are regularly and openly now protesting against the Kremin and war in Ukraine. His chickens are coming home to roost and will be roosting for decades.

Additionally, and perhaps most significantly, it suggests that the Kremlin has lost control over immigration and borders since ISIS-K operators were able to get into Russia from Tajikistan easily, undetected, with no credible intelligence from the Russian government apparatus to suggest to the contrary. Where did the weapons come from? Were they smuggled into Russia or does ISIS-K have a network in Russia to procure weapons internally? This useful act of terror has exposed that the Russian emperor has no clothes and is likely to soon freeze.
It has enormous implications for Russian security at every level. If ISIS-K can achieve this so easily – what else can be done and by whom to target this dangerous but ailing regime.? One thing is for sure – it can’t be soon enough and at least one terrorist group has declared that it will stop at nothing until it has destroyed the Putin regime.
With ISIS-K’s promise to continue targeting Russia, we can safely assume that the unravelling of Russia in central Asia has irreversibly begun. We are assured of Putin’s strategic unviability.

NO COUNTRY HAS BETTER intelligence on the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (known as ISIS-K) than the United States. American forces have faced ISIS-K almost from the moment the group was founded in 2015 in Pakistan, just a few miles from the Afghan border. It was there that a group of disaffected members of the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP, commonly referred to as the Pakistani Taliban) began turning their backs on al-Qaeda, which they saw as a failing brand, and joined the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

Russia did not heed the warning and a tragedy happened to innocent concert goers.